Meaning: This quote by David Kay, a prominent scientist, addresses the challenges and complexities associated with tracking the proliferation of certain activities or materials, particularly in countries with restricted access and closed societies. The quote suggests that there is a history of inaccuracies in tracking such proliferation, and Kay points to the difficulty of monitoring and verifying information in environments where access is limited and openness is not encouraged.

One interpretation of this quote is that it highlights the limitations and obstacles faced by individuals and organizations attempting to gather accurate and comprehensive data on proliferation activities, such as the spread of nuclear weapons, hazardous materials, or other sensitive technologies. This is particularly relevant in the context of international security and non-proliferation efforts, where the ability to monitor and verify the movement and use of such materials is crucial for preventing their misuse and ensuring global stability.

The phrase "There's a long record here of being wrong" suggests that past attempts to track proliferation have often been inaccurate or incomplete. This could be due to a variety of factors, including deliberate misinformation, lack of transparency, or the sheer complexity of the task. Kay's reference to "a good reason for it" implies that there are valid explanations for the historical inaccuracies, and he goes on to suggest that the difficulty of tracking proliferation is compounded by the lack of open access and free information in certain countries.

The mention of "countries that deny easy and free access and don't have free and open societies" points to the specific challenges posed by closed or authoritarian regimes, where government control over information and restricted access to outside observers make it difficult to obtain reliable data on sensitive activities. In such environments, independent verification and monitoring become extremely challenging, if not impossible, leading to a lack of transparency and accountability in proliferation-related matters.

From a broader perspective, this quote raises important questions about the role of transparency, open access to information, and international cooperation in addressing global challenges such as proliferation. It underscores the need for reliable and verifiable data in order to make informed policy decisions and take effective measures to prevent the spread of dangerous materials and technologies.

In conclusion, David Kay's quote captures the inherent difficulties of tracking proliferation activities, especially in environments where access is restricted and information is tightly controlled. It serves as a reminder of the complex and often opaque nature of global security challenges, and the importance of addressing these challenges through international cooperation, transparency, and diligent efforts to overcome the obstacles to accurate monitoring and verification.