Meaning: The quote "An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination" by Andrew Lang, a Scottish poet, critic, and anthropologist, provides a vivid analogy that sheds light on the misuse of statistics in forecasting and decision-making processes.

In this quote, Lang draws a comparison between an unsophisticated forecaster and a drunken man, implying that both rely on statistics and lamp-posts for the wrong reasons. The analogy suggests that, similar to a drunken man who uses lamp-posts for support rather than to find his way, an unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics merely as a crutch to justify their decisions rather than to gain genuine insight and understanding.

Andrew Lang's quote highlights the misuse of statistics as a tool for confirmation bias rather than for critical analysis and informed decision-making. It emphasizes the importance of using statistics for illumination – to shed light on the underlying patterns, trends, and relationships within data – rather than as a mere support for preconceived notions or biases.

The comparison to a drunken man and lamp-posts serves as a cautionary metaphor, reminding us of the potential pitfalls of blindly relying on statistics without understanding their context, limitations, and implications. Just as a drunken man may lean on a lamp-post without truly benefiting from its illumination, an unsophisticated forecaster may lean on statistics without truly understanding their significance and potential impact.

In the realm of forecasting and decision-making, statistics play a crucial role in providing insights, identifying trends, and making informed predictions. However, the misuse or misinterpretation of statistics can lead to flawed conclusions and misguided actions. This quote serves as a reminder that statistics should be used as a tool for illumination – to guide and inform our understanding – rather than as a crutch for unsupported assumptions or biased viewpoints.

Furthermore, the quote underscores the importance of critical thinking and a nuanced understanding of statistical analysis. It encourages forecasters and decision-makers to approach statistics with a sense of curiosity and skepticism, seeking to uncover genuine insights rather than simply seeking confirmation of preconceived beliefs.

In summary, Andrew Lang's quote poignantly captures the essence of the misuse of statistics in forecasting and decision-making. It serves as a reminder of the importance of using statistics for illumination rather than mere support, and it encourages a thoughtful and critical approach to statistical analysis. By heeding this cautionary metaphor, individuals can strive to leverage statistics in a manner that truly illuminates and informs their understanding, rather than merely providing superficial support for predetermined conclusions.